Current RMLS Market Action Report - June 2009

The June 2009 RMLS Market Action Report is out and the numbers are showing solid improvements in most categories except depreciation; those numbers are still declining (see chart below). Some of the good news can be partially attributed to this time of year as this is the busy season for real estate, however the numbers are actually better in some areas than 2006, 2007 & 2008 which does suggest a reversal of the market conditions since the "bubble burst".

First off, inventory is at it's lowest point since August 2007, this is a really positive sign as in 2007 and 2008 we saw an increase in inventory from May to June but this year we saw a large decrease in inventory from 10.2 months to 8.2 months, that's a very solid improvement. Additionally pending sales are up 8.4% from this time last year, but closed sales are down 5.4% and new listings are down 18.3%. Remember though, that last one is GOOD, as we need less inventory on the market to balance things out. Comparing May 2009 to June 2009 closed sales were up 24.5% while pending sales were up 10% but listings also rose 9.7% and while that's absolutely normal this time of year I'd prefer to not see so many new listings, tis the season or not.

Click Image for Report PDF

In terms of sale prices we're down 14% from June 2008 on average and the median is down 13.5%. Compared to May 2009 the results are mixed with average sale price up 2.9% and median sale price down 0.04%.

I'm going to start a new section here as we see the market begin to shift to a more stable market to note what we're seeing as Realtors in the Portland real estate market. We attribute the uptick in activity leading to the inventory improvement and other improvements to the $8,000 first time home buyer tax credit. This has first time home buyers out and about picking up homes which has resulted in the lower end of the market picking up significant steam. Were seeing multiple offers again, escalator clauses etc frequently now, primarily in the $280,000 and under market. Homes over $300,000 are generally still having a difficult time unless they are priced in line with the strong arm competition of the bank owned homes priced to move. So for sellers advice we're shifting from "don't sell right now" to if you're in the $250,000 or under price point and the home is clean/neat etc and you can price it within market you're best bet to get it sold this year is right now but if you're over $300,000 you may want to wait a bit longer, spring 2010 possibly. The competition of bank owned homes and short sales priced to sell (even though short sales have a really low success rate, they still attract buyers) is driving your home prices down significantly and if you're in an area with lots of bank owned & short sales you have to compete with them on their level and price point to sell, if you don't you are very unlikely to get a buyer. Additional concerns in this market are appraisers; they are just flat out rough these days; we've written a few articles on it recently and are seeing this problem in our own transactions and hearing it from other Realtors and lenders regularly; don't count your eggs until that appraisal comes in! Last but not least we tend to try to avoid political issues on our site and will continue to do so, so when we speak about the tax credits just know we stick to "how it effects real estate" specifically with no regard for other effects (national debt etc), why? We're a real estate website :-) With that said Realtors overwhelmingly support the idea of another tax credit, specifically the one being tossed about in Washington right now of $15,000 for ALL home buyers, first time or repeat though it appears that doesn't have a chance of passing, something like it is needed. Reason being is with the current activity largely due to the first time home buyer tax credit we're quite confident that when the current tax credit expires the market is very likely to come to a screeching halt. This would of course pro-long a recovery and could cause another dip in the market. National debt arguments aside, to keep things rolling in the real estate market we're going to need to see another tax credit for all home buyers to get all price points moving, not just the lower points. Of course if the economy sees strong improvements over the next few months (and I'm talking stock market back up over 10,000 at least) then we could see the market continue to improve without it...We'll see...

Last month we saw a mild improvement in depreciation levels but most were negligible, this last month however we've sunk further in all but one area, NW Washington County saw a .1 percent improvement, everyone else dipped further into the negatives, charted below.

Area	DR	Area	DR	Area	DR
N Portland	-8.1%	Oregon City / Canby	-12.0%	Tigard / Wilsonville	-8.8%
NE Portland	-7.3%	Lake Oswego / West Linn	-13.0%	Hillsboro / Forest Grove	-10.5%
SE Portland	-8.5%	W Portland	-5.4%	Mt. Hood	-2.2%
Gresham / Troutdale	-13.1%	NW Washington Co	-5.8% - was -5.9%
Milwaukie / Clackamas	-8.5%	Beaverton / Aloha	-8.6%

To download or view the entire report click on the report image or click here

2009 RMLS Market Action Report Archives

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