Current RMLS Market Action Report - July 2009

RMLS recently released the July 2009 Market Action Report for Oregon and specifically of course the Portland Metro and surrounding areas. The good news is there is good news (see below) the bad news is we only saw one area make a small improvement and reverse course in terms of depreciation (Oregon City/Canby), all other MLS areas for the Portland Real Estate market are down from the previous month.

Lets start with the bad then move onto the good this time. Comparing YTD, that is January-July 2009 with that of 2008 closed sales are down 18.7%, pending sales are down 10% and new listings are down 23.4%, but remember that last one is good as we need less inventory on the market; we currently have too many homes for sale. The average sale price for same month sales (July 2008 compared to July 2009) is down 15.2% and the median sale price also dropped by 13.3%.

Click Image for Report PDF

For area specific depreciation rates look to the table at the bottom of this page.

Now moving onto the good news, even though our year-to-date sales volume is down, our specific month comparison is actually up, in July 2009 we saw 8.6% higher sales volume than that of July 2008 and 8.3% higher pending sales, additionally new listings dropped 25.4% (that's great!). Looking at changes from June 2009 to July 2009 we also find increases and decreases in the right areas, closed sales increased 11.9%, pending sales increase a tiny (but measureable), 0.3% and new listings decreased 8.2% this last one being a bit odd as we usually see an increase in listings from June to July. Inventory is also down from last month by *almost* a full month, from 8.2 months in June to 7.3 months in July; this is the sixth month in a row we've seen inventory fall and it's 2.7 months lower than July 2008's level of 10 months, great news!

Last month I began a new section here to detail what we're seeing in the market as Realtors. We still attribute the strong uptick in the market to first time home buyers looking to cash in on the first time home buyer tax credit and in fact recent numbers that Coldwell Banker released recently show the trend in this PDF. That document is eye opening to say the least, it shows that when you compare June 2008 to June 2009 in total sales across all price points in the Portland Metro and Vancouver WA real estate market you find that there is a 9% increase in closed sales for homes priced under $299,999, homes priced from $300,000 - $499,999 saw a huge drop of -26% in that same comparison and for homes over $500,000 it gets even worse climbing well into the -42% range and higher.

This again reflects what we're seeing in this market; of the 10 homes we've sold in the last month seven of them were first time home buyers. Of the eight transactions we have in escrow right now, six of them are first time home buyers...As I mentioned last month (like it or not) if we see the tax credit expire and not replaced by something else or extended then in our opinion we are very likely to see the market go stale again. I don't know that we will see any more significant drops in home prices, maybe a little, but without the tax credit available and the likelihood of interest rates being higher then, it wouldn't be a good idea for first time home buyers to continue waiting for bottom; I'm quite sure we're there. While a stale market would of course lead to sales prices continuing to fall I seriously doubt that even with a stale market we would see significant drops in price between now and this time next year. A small dip, sure, but 15%+ as we've been seeing, again, I highly doubt it.

Also, noteworthy are short sales and bank owned, still moving pretty well and still wreaking havoc for non-distressed sellers. By their very nature short sales have a low success rate to actually close, however of the ones out there priced right with a decent chance of making it to close they are seeing multiple offers on them and frequently selling over asking price which buyers should be aware of; they are competitive to get! Bank owned homes have been this way for quite some time and still are. Also appraisal issues are still a significant hurdle in this market, considering the appraisal in years gone *was* the least of anyone's concern in a transaction, the fact that we've seen four appraisal problems in the last month is fairly significant; appraisers are being tough! Sellers especially should be aware of this as for a buyer it could work out to their benefit but with a seller it certainly does not.

Last month we saw only one improved area and it was only a smidge, that was NW Washington County with a .1% reversal of depreciation, this go round Oregon City / Canby were the only ones moving in a better direction; charted below.

Area	DR	Area	DR	Area	DR
N Portland	-9.2%	Oregon City / Canby	-11.1% was 12%	Tigard / Wilsonville	-10.3%
NE Portland	-7.5%	Lake Oswego / West Linn	-15.8%	Hillsboro / Forest Grove	-11.9%
SE Portland	-9.6%	W Portland	-9%	Mt. Hood	-3.4%
Gresham / Troutdale	-13.6%	NW Washington Co	-6%
Milwaukie / Clackamas	-9.5%	Beaverton / Aloha	-9.7%

To download or view the entire report click on the report image or click here - This report includes all RMLS Counties, scroll down to find the Portland Metro report.

2009 RMLS Market Action Report Archives

Older than 2009 Archives