Current RMLS Market Action Report - September 2008

With the latest market action report from RMLS, we have now seen a significant improvement in the market with closed sales only falling 7.3% over the same time last year, compared to a drop off last month of 30.7% and pending sales were off by only 10.6% compared to last months drop of 22%. All in all that's an improvement we need to see and it means buyers are buying. At the same time new listings dropped by only 4.5%; given a needed improvement however I would like to have see that number much higher (fewer listings, smaller inventory).

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Inventory is up to 10.4 months, this however is a fairly normal shift for fall and that means at the current level of buyer activity the 17,006 listings will take 10.4 months to sell. Looking at a quarterly perspective we see a 15% decrease in listings, again a much needed decline but still need to see that number go up. Closed sales and pending sales however are down in larger number than the monthly at 26.4% and 18.5% respectively. The average sales price is down 4.8% compared to August 2008 and median is down 4.6%.

I typically remain intrigued by North and NE Portland's ability to continue to appreciate in this market at high levels. Last month however we saw a significant dip in those values and the trend continues this month with North Portland dropping from 3.8% to 2.7%, NE Portland home values dropping from 2.9% to 2.1%. Southeast Portland Real Estate Values have continued into negative territory going from -1.3% in August to -1.5% in September.

While we've seen the Milwaukie and Clackamas area home values having the most significant dip in value through this troubled market they are at least remaining consistent right around the 6.5% mark (last month) at 6.7% this month. Gresham & Troutdale on the other hand have continued their slide from -3.4% in August to -5% in September.

West Portland and Lake Oswego? Still on their pedestals with the former still gaining at 6.8% and the latter at 5.4%, pretty much where they were at last month as well. The west side also continues their slide with Beaverton/Aloha areas coming in at -3.8%, Tigard/Wilsonville -3.8% as well and Hillsboro/Forest Grove in at -4.1%.

Moving over the river SW Washington inventory remains at 12.7 months, hasn't budged since last month. However SW Washington has managed to pull something off that Portland markets have not; the pending and closed sales have risen in SW Washington, to 7.9% and 2.4% respectively! Good for you SW Washington! They've also managed to decrease their listings as well by 15.8%. The average sales price in SW Washington has dropped (last 12 months) by 6.7% and median sales price by 6.3%.

The long and short of it? We're still most certainly in a troubled market and will likely continue to be for at least a few more months. Some analysts say 2009 for a recovery, others say 2010...I remain hopeful that we will see a significant improvement in summer 2009, not a complete recovery per se but an improvement none the less. If you're in the market to buy get out there and do it! If you're waiting for the market to "hit bottom" I think by the time you hear it has (and we are hearing that more and more now) it will be 6-12 months past. If you're selling your home or thinking about it, a few thoughts for you. If you don't have to sell your home right now; don't. If you do have to sell right now and you're thinking "winter is coming, the market is slow then, I'll never sell it!"; remember that even though the market is historically slower through the winter, December is often a good month for sales and buyers out looking in the cold and rainy weather in our experience tend to be more serious buyers...With that said if you're home is already for sale and your not having any luck, consider lowering your price, if you don't need to sell, take it off the market and wait it out a while longer, if you do need to sell and are worried your home will look "stale" being on the market from fall through to spring/summer next year; hey, you saw that inventory is 10.4 months right? All listings are "stale" right now and will continue to be through the winter and spring; don't miss the right buyer through the winter. Overall I'd love to see a HUGE decline in listings, but if you have to sell, you have to sell.

To download or view the entire report click on the report image or click here

2008 RMLS Market Action Report Archives

February 2008
January 2008

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