Current RMLS Market Action Report - October 2008

The October 2008 RMLS Statistics were just sent out today and the numbers continue the trend of a declining market but I'm still optimistic and happy to say new listings are also down; I'll be rather frightened if I see new listings go up in this market and last month at only a 4.5% decline in new listings, we were close.

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Compared to October 2007 closed sales were down 21.4%, Pending sales were down 39.6% and new listings down 21.6%. Looking at September 2008 --> October 2008 of course we also see a decline that is normal for this time of year, but the high numbers are a result of today's down market. 25.6% less pending sales, closed sales down only 10.7% and new listings down 14.2%. Over all the numbers are as expected and we seem to be bouncing around a bit. Last months year to date closed sales were only off by 7.3% compared to an average of the last five years of August to September closed sales being down 12.9% annually; so this is a positive *possible* trend.

Inventory saw a modest jump from 10.4 months in September to 11.1 for October, again a normal increase for this time of year but more significant than the average jump due to the current market. We are still seeing a decrease in year-to-date new listings compared to 2007, only by 7.5% at this point however that's much better than an increase in new listings!

Onto appreciation numbers by area with very few areas still appreciating. North & NE Portland 2.2% and 2.0% respectively not a huge change from last month and I would expect these areas to weather the storm so to speak without dipping into the negatives much if at all. Southeast Portland home values however are still in negative territory and slipping each month from -1.5% in September to -2.2% in October.

Lake Oswego & West Linn real estate values slipped significantly from Septembers 5.4% appreciation to Octobers 3.6% appreciation - Still appreciating though so that's good! This is another area I am not expecting to see slip into the negatives much if at all...North and NE Portland I would expect to slip into negative territory before Lake Oswego and West Linn but I doubt even N & NE will. Along with Lake Oswego and West Linn, West Portland is still doing quite well at 5% appreciation rates; not bad, not bad at all! Of course that is a drop from Septembers number of 6.8% though...Ehh, at least it's still respectable right?

Milwaukie and Clackamas areas have seen an IMPROVEMENT! Yes, that's right, you read correctly, their numbers improved from -6.7% in September to -5.4% in October...Sure they aren't appreciating but at least for October they seem to have reversed course, lets keep that going folks! Unfortunately Oregon City homes along with Canby have dipped further from -3.7% to -4.8%.

On the west side it's all downhill, Northwest / Washington County managed to eek out a 0.4% appreciation rate in September but this month all of the west side is in the red with Northwest / Washington County just barely over the line at -0.7%, Beaverton / Aloha real estate slipping to -4.2%, Tigard / Wilsonville MLS areas with almost no change at -3.9%, Hillsboro / Forest Grove taking the loss leader at -5.0% down 0.9% from September.

My Hood & Government Camp real estate values for a few months now have seen the most significant decline in value at -11.5% in September and -16.2% in October.

Onto Clark County and SW Washington, inventory is up another solid month from 12.7 months in September to 13.7 months in October. From September 2008 to October 2008 there were 21.7% less pending sales, only a 10.2% drop in closed sales and new listings were down 20.3% (wish we could see that in Portland!). Year-to-Date 28.1% fewer closed sales, 25.9% less pending sales and a 9.4% slide in new listings.

Obviously we still have a way to go, but some of the numbers are looking up, Milwaukie/Clackamas reversing course, closed sales down 10.7% from September to October (instead of 20% for instance) & new listings down 20.3% in SW Washington; sure not a recovery quite yet, but the numbers are getting more and more mixed locally which is better than all grim right?

...Right.

We'll get there...

To download or view the entire report click on the report image or click here

2008 RMLS Market Action Report Archives

February 2008
January 2008