Current RMLS Market Action Report - November 2008

It's that time of year where we typically see a market slow down, this time around is no different in that sense however with the latest release of the RMLS Market Action Report for November 2008; the numbers are (surprise surprise!) a bit grim. The Portland real estate market is still doing better than most markets nationally but that's like saying a 20% car loan is better than a 30% car loan...Better yes, but definitely not good.

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Our current inventory is at a whopping 15 months, closed sales for November were only 1,041 which is the lowest we've seen since February 1993. On the brighter side, thankfully listings are still dwindling at a decrease of 20.2% from last November. Kristie tracks Happy Valley homes in terms of how many new listings come onto the market with a daily RMLS report and has seen this as well, use to be a handful a day of new listings in that area, now down to 1-2 here and there. This is a GOOD sign, problem is pending and closed sales are putting a bit more pressure on the brakes than listings are and we really need to see that trend reverse before we can start to see a recovery. Analysts are still mixed, however I am hearing an increase in chatter about 2009 possibly being just as bad, possibly worse than 2008. I, however prefer to remain optimistic and thus continuing to agree with the analysts that say we should see a recovery in 2009 instead; after all with the bailouts (too many to name at this point) and the sluggish economy in general, lending and credit markets tightening their belts, it couldn't get much worse...I have to hope not anyway.

The average sales price was off by 10.5% from November 2007 and 4.9% from October 2008. The medians are 7% and 3.6%. In terms of the new listings vs closed sales falling off we're three times the negative level we were seeing at the beginning of this drop off in November 2006, inventory then was 5.1 months compared to this Novembers 15 months; and depreciation levels? Hold onto your hats if you own a home in Lake Oswego; that luxury home bastion of the Portland Oregon real estate market, you're now FLAT...That's right, Lake Oswego and West Linn are just about to dip into the negatives and I suspect with the latest bailout news of the big three auto-makers we're unlikely to see an improvement in December...Ready, Lake Oswego'ians and West Linn'ians (ok, neither are actually words)?

...0.4% appreciation...Ouch.

Those in West Portland however, congratulations, you're the only market in Portland metro managing to hang onto a respectable rate of appreciation at 4.2%, NE Portland homes at 0.5% are the next highest with Lake Oswego / West Linn just on their heels and North Portland rounding out the only markets still appreciating at 0.1%.

All other areas then are in the red, with Mt. Hood / Government Camp area seeing the most significant depreciation of -13.4%, Gresham & Troutdale are next at -6.4%, Hillsboro / Forest Grove at -5.9%, Oregon City / Canby areas -5.6%, Beaverton, Aloha, Tigard & Wilsonville all coming in at -4.8%. Milwaukie / Clackamas (and Happy Valley) coming in at -4.6% which is a mark they have been hovering around for quite a while, at least their not in dead last place any longer as they were for a number of months. Southeast Portland real estate coming in at -3.1% and Northwest Washington County at -1.7%.

Tough times indeed, but as always we'll pull out of it...things are cyclical, we were in an outstanding growth market that everyone should have known, but surprisingly didn't, was not sustainable and it's time to take the lumps and move on. Barring some other catastrophe, which seem to be a dime a dozen these days on the news so I'll say a massive catastrophe, I'm still remaining optimistic that we'll see an improvement after the new year and spring 2009.

In terms of rate of decline SW Washington has not been weathering this storm as well as Portland, however for the first time Portland's real estate market is now approaching that level. SW Washington was at 13.7 months of inventory for October, Portland of course has beat that at 15 months and while SW Washington has increased yet again for November it's for the first time only slightly more significant inventory than Portland at 16.9 months. Portland has been moving closer to SW Washington's inventory rates at only 2.6 months difference in October, but now we're under 2 months difference...Not sure how to take that, good news for SW Washington or bad news for Portland? I'd have to go back to the 20-30% car loan analogy from above I suppose.

Hang in there folks!

Buyers, get out there and get this market moving! If you're waiting for the market to hit bottom you'll probably miss it, get out there get that home of your dreams at one of the best prices and finance rates we're likely to see for another decade!

To download or view the entire report click on the report image or click here

2008 RMLS Market Action Report Archives

February 2008
January 2008

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