Current RMLS Market Action Report - December 2008

December 2008 RMLS Market Action Report was released yesterday and we see some improvement notably in inventory however the numbers overall remain down with pending and closed sales at record lows not seen since RMLS reporting began in the area in 1992.

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Changing things up a bit lets start with depreciation levels. Compared to last month there hasn't been a whole heck of a lot of change EXCEPT with Lake Oswego, West Linn and West Portland which were still hanging in there last month at 0.4% and 4.2% appreciation rates respectively. This month, not so much. Lake Oswego Real Estate and West Linn Homes took a nose dive in December falling deep into depreciation at a now whopping -4.5% and I don't believe we've seen such a significant dive in any other market area in this economic crunch. West Portland is still in the black at 1.9% and that is now officially the only real estate market in Portland metro still in the black. I suspect, however that unless we see a significant uptick in consumer confidence as a result of this coming Tuesdays events (Obama inauguration for those reading this in a few weeks) even the mighty West Portland home market will see a dip into negative territory in January 2009's market action report. Personally I think we will see an uptick in consumer confidence at that point as whether you are an Obama supporter or not this change in the White House is something the country has been wanting to see for a long time and could instill some confidence in the market place but with typical escrow times of 30 days any improvement in the housing market won't be recorded until February and I'm not sure we'll see enough of a bounce to make a significant difference, consumers are still guarding their wallets.

As for other areas, again the numbers are pretty much the same as last months only changed by mere fractions so I'll go over them quick: North Portland -0.1%, Northeast Portland -0.4%, Southeast Portland -3.3%, Gresham/Troutdale -8.2%, Milwaukie/Clackamas/Happy Valley -4.6%, Oregon City/Canby -5%, NW Washington County -3.4%, Beaverton/Aloha -4.4%, Tigard/Wilsonville -5.9%, Hillsboro/Forest Grove -6.7%, Mt Hood/Government Camp actually improved a bit from -13.4% last month to -10.5% in December.

Every month for the last few months-year we've seen a decrease in pending and closed sales both year to date and month to month same month previous year comparisons being off in the 35% mark, it's no different in December with pending sales off by 30.8% compared to December 2007 and closed sales off by 32.1%. New listings (thankfully) are still on down but only by 8.7% (I'd like nothing more than to see those numbers reverse!).

The median and average sale prices have also dipped from roughly $350K in 12-07 to $300K in 12-08 for average and $275K to $250K for median. Market time has almost doubled as well from December 2007's 73 days to December 2008's 138 days.

Now onto the good news!

Inventory FELL in December from 15 months to 14.1 months! Ok, not a huge drop but hey it's a drop ok? Also, RMLS often includes a year end condo appreciation rate in December's market action and for 2008 that is 6% over all in the entire Portland metro area so if you own a condo you're at least still appreciating however just note that previous year rates were in the teens so you're off by about 50%.

As for Clark County / Vancouver etc your inventory also came down a bit from 16.9 months to 14.8 so a definite improvement there as well but of course that's over shadowed by a 8.9% sales price drop and appreciation/depreciation rates all over the board from -22.2% in SW Heights to 25.2% in SE County...Wow...

Here's the thing, a few years ago during the "boom" economists were telling everyone they should save, and what was everyone doing? Buying anything that wasn't bolted to the bottom of a lake! Now economists are telling everyone to spend and what's every one doing? SAVING. Come on folks, these guys aren't called "Economist's" for nothing and each and every person out there is one part of the economic engine that drives this country. It's tough to spend right now we know, but with a home purchase you're overall investment over the years pay's off, it's incredibly rare (if ever) a "loss" as a home is an asset not a liability and considering a typical home purchase is hundreds of thousands of dollars every home purchased helps the economy. We're not going to see interest rates this low again for a long time if ever, there's still close to 100% financing available and the selection of homes on the market is outstanding! This is the best time to buy a home whether you're a first time home buyer or not and if you're not and selling your home is what's holding you back, take it off the market and rent it to cover those payments, buy the home you want and when the market recovers then sell that home for far more than you could now!

Alright, done with my sermon...

To download or view the entire report click on the report image or click here

2008 RMLS Market Action Report Archives