Archive for the ‘Real Estate Trends’ Category

Scott’s October 2014 Portland Area Market Report by Area – UPDATED

Friday, November 14th, 2014

I have been tracking numbers for probably close to three years now and have gone through tons of changes in what I track and how I track it. Just this last year eliminating an emphasis on the distressed market as we are no longer in a heavily distressed market (though, I do still track distressed activity).

The biggest change however has come recently in starting to track all 13 individual RMLS “Areas” that make up the Portland Metro real estate market in addition to the overall Portland Metro market. This change has been a difficult one at best as I am often finding a need to fine tune things; then it must be fine tuned 14 times (13 markets plus the 1 overall Portland market).

As an example, in preparing this post I realized I was taking a daily “snapshot” of the previous week worth of sales activity to generate the portion of my reports that show:

  • Inventory in days
  • Average days on market for sold homes
  • Average price per square foot for solds
  • Average list price when sold
  • Average sale price
  • Average percent of list price paid

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What is the Current Average Home Sale Price in Your Area? Got it Right Here!

Friday, November 7th, 2014

In the last few months I’ve been switching up my real estate market tracking which previously only tracked the Portland metro and surrounding areas as a whole, lumping in Molalla with say N Portland, which shows the overall conditions in the Portland real estate market at large, but doesn’t get granular enough to help folks buying or selling a home in a given area.

That has now changed. I am now tracking, daily, each of the 13 individual RMLS markets in the Portland metro region. This still may not get granular enough for some, however being that these “areas” are defined by RMLS as “markets” it should help quite a bit.

So, home sale prices in a given area? Lets get on with it! These numbers represent all logged sales in the last week (from October 30th – November 6th):

RMLS Area 141 North Portland

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Interest Rates Starting to Climb a Bit, Still Low

Tuesday, November 4th, 2014

Checking interest rates today it looks like rates are beginning to climb a bit again with BankRate.com showing 4.10% for a standard 30 year fixed and 3.27 for 15 year fixed rate. Both are up from rates in the previous two weeks, however they are still historically very low and lower than we’ve seen in months.

This means if you’re sitting on the fence, hoping for lower interest rates, you need to make a decision soon as this trend of increasing rates could continue for the next few weeks or months and get back into the 4.5%+ range soon.

 

Mortgage rates 30-year fixed 15-year fixed 5/1 ARM 30-year jumbo
10/29/2014 4.10 3.27 3.11 4.11
10/22/2014 4.05 3.21 3.14 4.10
10/15/2014 4.01 3.23 3.09 4.09
10/8/2014 4.18 3.37 3.27 4.21
10/1/2014 4.27 3.44 3.29 4.29
9/24/2014 4.30 3.46 3.32 4.31
9/17/2014 4.33 3.46 3.35 4.37
9/10/2014 4.27 3.42 3.29 4.35
9/3/2014 4.24 3.37 3.25 4.29
8/27/2014 4.23 3.38 3.32 4.29

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Portland Real Estate Market Update: Inventory Down, Distressed Homes Up

Friday, October 31st, 2014

Normally during this time of year we do see inventory shrinking and indeed this year is no different. Down from roughly 6,400 homes on the market back in late August to 5,640 as of today as this graph shows:

 

 

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September 2014 RMLS Market Action Report

Wednesday, October 29th, 2014

The September RMLS Market Action Report is out and is showing the market is still quite strong for sellers with inventory still low in terms of number of months. RMLS shows 3.1 months for September. My own number tracking shows us running around 80 days currently (seems to be decreasing for October, which is not the norm).

Other highlights include solid gains for the average sale price as well which for September was $338,100 up 6.6% from September 2013 and 7.4% for year to date, but that is down .6% from August. My own numbers show we are currently hovering around the $360,000 mark so it is still increasing currently in late October.

Typically we would be seeing a solid slow down in the market right now and while we are seeing that with inventory over all, down from over 6,400 homes in early September to just barely 5,800 now, usually we would be seeing larger jumps in the inventory in terms of months worth of inventory, but we’re not seeing that with only a .1 /month jump for September from August where as in 2013 that same jump was .6 and in 2012 it was .7.

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Data Tracking Changes Incoming & Finally Adding Area & Price Tracking

Tuesday, August 26th, 2014

I’m going to be changing what is tracked from here on out and being that tracking these numbers takes a considerable amount of time, I can’t keep the old numbers going while also doing the new numbers; HOWEVER, I have also implemented area tracking and home price tracking (see the end of this post for tracking information going away, and tracking information being added).

This means, from here on out I’ll be tracking data for the entire Portland Metro and surrounding area markets, as well as each of the 13 RMLS areas that make up this market individually.

Here’s a breakdown of these areas:

  • 141 North Portland
  • 142 Northeast Portland
  • 143 Southeast Portland
  • 144 Gresham, Sandy, Troutdale, Corbett
  • 145 Milwaukie, Gladstone, Happy Valley, Clackamas, Damascus, Estacada
  • 146 Oregon City, Beavercreek, Canby, Molalla, Mulino
  • 147 Lake Oswego, West Linn
  • 148 West Portland, Raleigh Hills
  • 149 NW Washington County, Sauvie Island
  • 150 Beaverton, Aloha
  • 151 Tigard, Tualatin, Sherwood, Wilsonville
  • 152 Hillsboro, Forest Grove
  • 153 Mt Hood, Welches, Rhododendron, Wemme, Zigzag, Brightwood, Government Camp

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RMLS Market Action Report for July 2014

Friday, August 15th, 2014

It’s that time of the month again; the RMLS Market Action Reports are out for July 2014. I generally focus on the Portland Metro report as that’s the market I operate in, however if you want the report for other areas please feel free to shoot me an email and I’ll get it to you.

For July inventory slipped slightly from 2.8 months of inventory at current buying activity to 2.9 months, just about a negligible change. The average sale price however has increased slightly from $334,800 in June to $344,700 in July; or roughly 2.85%. From the same period in 2013 however it’s jumped 7.9% ($326,500 in July 2013).

We are likely to see the inventory levels rise however as A) It’s normal for this time of year moving forward and B) at 3,954 new listings for July 2014 that’s 2% more than July 2013 which is actually a 3% drop from 4,078 new listings in June of this year. Of course with all of this said we saw an increase in pending sales (accepted offers) in July 2014 compared to July 2013 (2.3% better) but a drop from June 2014 of 5.5%. Last but not least, following suit with the drop/increase trend are closed sales increasing 2.3% from last July and dropping 3.2% from June 2014.

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Home Ownership at 19 Year Low

Tuesday, July 29th, 2014

Despite the strong sales we’re seeing here in the Portland real estate market and higher than average appreciation rates combined with interest rates still at historical lows, we’re still seeing an overall decline in the U.S. for home ownership and part of that is due to the fact that 1 in 3 Americans currently has some sort of debt in collections.

There are additional contributing factors, like recent college grads having high school loan debt, housing prices climbing and tighter restrictions on lending. I suspect however there is also some growing concern among potential home buyers about the U.S. economy in general causing them to hold off on owning a home.

It really is a shame to see this as owning a home is by far a more financially stable position to be in, the majority of the time, than renting. With renting, you’re just throwing your money away every month adding to someone else’s investment portfolio rather than your own.

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Zillow to Acquire Trulia for $3.5 Billion in Stock

Monday, July 28th, 2014

A few days ago I heard a real estate news blip about Zillow potentially acquiring Trulia, today I received confirmation of it straight from the horses mouth:

Zillow, Inc. (NASDAQ: Z) today announced that it has entered into a definitive agreement to acquire Trulia, Inc. (NYSE: TRLA) for $3.5 billion in a stock-for-stock transaction. The Boards of Directors of both companies have approved the transaction, which is expected to close in 2015.

You can find the full press release here

Per the press release it seems that after the transaction completes in 2015, the two entities will remain separate for the foreseeable future. So although fun to say, Zillowia.com will not be part of your future home searches anytime soon.

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Gresham, Troutdale, Fairview & Wood Village; You’re up to Bat!

Tuesday, March 11th, 2014

Just finished the real estate market tracking report for Gresham, Fairview, Troutdale and Wood Village…This is again, only 10 days worth of data so not super reliable yet (give it a few weeks; trends and real usable data will show itself); with that said Gresham seems to be where only those looking for deals are buying as the average sale price in Gresham (and the mentioned towns in the Gresham area) are below the $200,000 mark:

 

 

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East & South Side Rural Real Estate Market Report

Tuesday, March 11th, 2014

I had a bit of difficulty with this one as it began it’s thus far short life as an east side only rural report (sorry west side rural folks, I won’t be doing a report for you) but there just wasn’t enough data, so I changed it up to include all east side AND south side rural. The towns included in this report are:

  • Aurora
  • Beavercreek
  • Boring
  • Canby
  • Colton
  • Damascus
  • Eagle Creek
  • Estacada
  • Hubbard
  • Molalla
  • Mt Angel
  • Mullino
  • Sandy
  • Scott’s Mills
  • Woodburn

Even with all of those towns, we’re still talking a few listings/solds etc per day at best…Of course were still coming out of the slow season, so come spring/summer the numbers here will pick up a bit, but there are enough now for trackable data.

Here’s a snippet of the report (not bad average sale prices for rural areas):

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Clackamas, Milwaukie, Oak Grove & Gladstone Real Estate Market Tracking Data Ready

Tuesday, March 11th, 2014

Here’s the report for the Clackamas, Milwaukie, Oak Grove & Gladstone area. Even though Happy Valley and portions of SE Portland are technically the same RMLS “areas” I am doing seperate reports for those, hence they are not included in this report; just FYI.

Here’s the Clackamas, Milwaukie, Oak Grove & Gladstone Market Report.

Your Realtor, Scott McDonald

Everything. Portland. Real Estate. Blog.

First New Real Estate Data Tracking Report is LIVE! Beaverton Market

Tuesday, March 11th, 2014

I’m going through these new tracking reports in alphabetical order, so the “Aloha, Beaverton & Hillsboro” one was the first completed.

I did attempt to go back to January 1 of this year, however, it would have taken me WEEKS, if not MONTHS to get all the reports updated, so I opted to start March 1 2014 with the reports so there is data in them now, just not a lot.

I’ll be posting each areas report as I complete them, so stay tuned for your areas report; for now, here’s some screen shots of the new Beaverton area one (and it’s also attached below, with some more information on these reports):

 

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Real Estate Tracking Data & Reports: BIG Changes Coming; Area Reports, Pricing & Days on Market in Tow

Friday, March 7th, 2014

I just wanted to get an FYI out to everyone that I am currently working on revamping the tracking report as I get a lot of requests for area specific reports (people asking for my tracking reports for Happy Valley, or Lake Oswego real estate reports etc).

Additionally short sales and foreclosures have been edging ever closer to market pricing these days, often no longer the “steal of a deal” they once were and there are a lot less of them now. So, with that said, I am *considering* ditching that portion of the tracking data in favor of adding new data points like:

  • Median Sale Price Tracking
  • Average Sale Price Tracking
  • Days on Market for Pending Sales
  • Average Price Per Square Foot Tracking
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Big Week for New Listings & Pending Sales in Portland Real Estate Market

Friday, March 7th, 2014

This week, not officially the first of spring, albeit we’ve had some spring like weather, has been a jumping week for the Portland real estate market.

Total number of homes continues to hover under 4,300 in total, however new listings are seeing a significant jump in the last week, continuing the previous weeks trend:

 

 

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February 2014 Portland Real Estate Market Month End Numbers

Monday, March 3rd, 2014

So we’re now officially into March and all of the February Portland real estate tracking numbers are in.

Most everything is up across the board, new listings are increasing, however the inventory is staying about the same because pending sales and closed sales are also increasing:

 

Of course at the end of February we had a very normal large spike in cancelled, withdrawn and expired listings…Again, completely normal for the last day of the month.

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High Density Urban Building Practices, Encouraged by Local Governments, Not So Popular

Tuesday, February 25th, 2014

This one was posted up back in January by OregonBusiness.com citing a CFM Strategic Communications survey conducted in Portland back in December that shows Portlander’s aren’t real fond of the local governments push for high density construction (essentially, focusing on condos, townhomes and apartments rather than single family residential homes).

A whopping 46% of respondents, which were the overwhelming majority in this section, felt focusing on condos and apartments instead of single family residences (detached residential homes) was the wrong direction for government with the same percent of respondents not agreeing that these high density projects save local governments money in infrastructure costs.

Hmmm…I’m not a huge fan of high density building either, I mean, if that’s your thing and you enjoy close quarters living, be my guest, it’s just not my cup of tea; but to say it doesn’t save money on infrastructure? Seems to me it would? Would it not?

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Big Valentines Day Closing Spike and Pending Sales, On the Rise

Friday, February 21st, 2014

In tracking RMLS data daily I have to regularly look back several days, even up to a week or more for past closings / sold homes that were not entered into RMLS on the day they actually closed. I call it a lag time where a Realtor may close on a home on X day, but not update RMLS to show that closing until a few days later, sometime a week or more.

In looking back to just before Valentines day today to pickup those missed closed sales I found that on Valentines day there was a large spike of closings. Normally right now we’re seeing around 45-50 closings per day and my previously recorded number for Valentines Day was right in line with that, but when I picked up the lag numbers today, there were 140 closings on Valentines day; that’s HUGE single day number…Seems as though there were a lot of folks trying to ensure their significant other had a great Valentines Day present this year; keys to their new home.

Here’s the graph:

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RMLS Portland Market Action Report for January 2014

Monday, February 17th, 2014

The January 2014 RMLS Market Action Report for the Portland Metro & Surrounding areas is out and is showing yet again the Portland real estate market has become a much more healthy and stable market. This positive outlook was market wide for the Portland area, officially, when almost a year ago back in April of 2013, NW Washington County was the last Portland Metro RMLS area to leave depreciating numbers behind; hopefully for good!

Inventory just about always slips in January (that is, it rises) and this year is no different with inventory going from 3.2 months in December 2013 to 4.1 months in January 2014 and when you look at current pending sales you can see that inventory could slip again in February.

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New Listings & Pending Sales In Portland Housing Market Continue to Drop Off

Monday, February 17th, 2014

Happy Presidents Day everyone!

Taking a look at the daily numbers for today we’re still seeing a measurable, albeit expected drop off in pending sales and new listings. Pending sales which were averaging around 55 a day are now barely averaging around 40 per day:

 

 

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New Listings and Pending Sales Down, New Construction Listings Up

Thursday, February 13th, 2014

Looking at today’s numbers from my daily RMLS tracking the total number of residential listings in the Portland market is still holding tight just below 4,200 (4,184 as of today) however new listings coming onto the market is indeed slipping this week with the market dropping from an average of around 80 new listings a day to now more around 70 new listings per day:

 

 

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Fannie Mae’s 3.5% First Look Program is Available

Thursday, February 13th, 2014

Just got a reminder email from Fannie Mae that their 3.5% closing costs program is available again and thought it could be of interest to potential buyers out there. This is a program that offers 3.5% in closing costs assistance towards the purchase of a fannie mae foreclosed home for owner occupant buyers. I looked up how many qualifying fannie mae properties there are currently in the city of Portland alone and found 65 currently available, so once you take into consideration surrounding suburbs we’re likely in the realm of around 200 or so in the area that are eligible for this program.

You can find the programs details here, could be worth a look!

Scott McDonald

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10 Steps to Buying a Home From Realtor.com

Wednesday, February 12th, 2014

Realtor.com recently put together a 10 step guide to buying a home and although some of the “steps” are a bit on the simple side, “Get a Realtor” or “Look at Homes”, once you click on the step title you are taken to a page that actually does have some good information for new home buyers.

For instance one of the more obvious steps is simply “Get a Realtor”, yet once you click on it you are brought to a page  that does have some genuinely good information that many may take for granted, but a new home buyer could find rather valuable.

Check it out here

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New Construction Sales Trending Higher in Total Sales Volume in Portland Real Estate Market

Wednesday, February 12th, 2014

We’ve been seeing an increase in the percent of new construction sales as they pertain to total closed volume in the Portland market, however this appears to be more of a situation where new construction sales are remaining flat and resale (existing home sales) are declining, as you can see from the charts below:

 

 

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Significant Drop in RMLS Data for 2013 Distressed Sales As A Total of All Sales

Monday, February 10th, 2014

Hot off the RMLS Blog is a report showing some of the statistics for distressed properties in the RMLS market for 2013 compared to the same data from 2012 and the one that caught my attention right off the bat was the percent of total sales.

In 2012 for “All [RMLS] Areas” distressed properties accounted for 28.6% of the market, in 2013 that number was almost half of that (thanks Clark county for the “almost”) at 15.1%.

For the Portland Metro market we hit BELOW half, 2012 was 28.2%, 2013 was 13.2%.

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